Friday, May 22, 2009

日本經濟會再次出現奇跡嗎?



戰後日本經濟起飛,被譽為奇跡。90年代末期,日本經歷泡沫爆破,十多年來經濟發展裹足不前。現在又遇到金融海嘯,全球各國經濟面臨嚴峻的考驗,最近,連一些在國際間發展得很成功的日本企業,如豐田汽車、新力等也陸續錄得虧損。一直依賴出口的日本經濟正走進一個使人感到氣餒的萎縮期。

當然,日本不是唯一遇到這個問題的國家。這是全球性的經濟危機,但日本外向性的經濟發展模式不可能一下子改變,而且國內的問題也不限於經濟。自民黨領導的政府已漸漸失去民意,反對黨是否能奪取政權年底前就會分曉。但最可怕的卻是國內失業率上升所帶來的負面情緒,不但影響國內消費意欲,也製造一種末世的社會情緒。

這讓人想起日本中世紀戰亂時代的黑暗日子,但那時候仍能看到光輝。所以說,金融海嘯可能是讓日本人反思的契機。中世紀進入近現代的過程,正是吸收外來文化(尤其是佛教文化,儒家思想,以及西方科學等)和自我審視的時代。奇跡最後發生了﹕17世紀開始,日本重新建立一個穩定卻充滿創意的社會,德川幕府政權雖然是一個封建體制,但文化上卻保持一定程度的多元,那時候日本人積極吸收外來文化。

現在,如果日本要重拾這種奇跡,我認為她必須變得更「開放」。戰後日本經濟雖然發展迅速,社會也完成了現代化的洗禮,而且國民已經享受著民主和自由,但高效率的日本社會始終保持一定的封閉性。這種壓抑不是來自政府,而是來自全能的媒體和企業文化,它們就像「慈母」般讓很多日本人滿足於安逸和安寧,也厭惡他們認為是「不文明」的生活模式----這些日本人厭惡衝突、有潔癖、不喜歡不熟悉的文化、語言、不喜歡政治、怕麻煩……因為他們是被寵壞了的消費者。

我覺得日本的經濟問題不應該完全歸咎於金融海嘯,最核心的反而是日本社會形成了崇尚消費主義的風氣,那才是日本經濟無法迅速復蘇的致命傷。試想,一個推銷「夢」的社會,如果沒有「夢」,會多麼的讓人沮喪。

日本戰後經濟奇跡的歷史,也給中國經濟一面可供反思的寶鑑。21世紀是中國人的世紀?這個「夢」如果要實現,它自然要實現,但最重要是保持「實事求是」的態度。社會經濟發展需要很多「夢想家」,也需要很多對「社會現實」時常關注的社會良知。

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Japan economy takes a record fall

May 20, 2009
TOKYO, Japan (CNN) -- Japan's GDP fell 4 percent last quarter, the fastest pace on record, the government said on Wednesday.

The January-March quarter for Japan was 15.4 percent lower than the same time period last year, according to figures released by the Cabinet Office. Exports fell 26 percent on quarter, while imports were down 15 percent.
The GDP slide in the world's second-largest economy is the greatest drop among the world's leading economies. By comparison, GDP in the United States fell 6.1 percent on an annual basis.


This was the fourth straight quarter the Japanese economy contracted. Analysts say the drop reflects cuts in domestic spending with job cuts, factory closings and less capital spending as a result of spiraling sales abroad.

The news punctuates a month of poor economic news out of Japan in recent weeks. Panasonic, one of the world's largest makers of electronic devices, announced it lost nearly $4 billion in the fiscal year ending March 31. Hitachi lost $8 billion in the fiscal year, with consolidated revenues down 11 percent from last year, the largest loss ever recorded by a Japanese manufacturer.

NEC Corporation lost $3 billion in the past fiscal year, down nearly 11.5 percent from last year. Meanwhile, Nissan lost $2.3 billion for the year. Sony Corp. announced net losses of $1 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, finishing a year in the red for the first time in 14 years.

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Thursday, May 21, 2009, The Japan Times Online


Economy shrinks at record-setting pace
Annualized 15.2% drop in quarter reflects collapse in exports, output


By Takahiro Fukada
Staff writer

Gross domestic product plunged at a record annual pace of 15.2 percent in the three months to March as exports collapsed and businesses cut production, the government said Wednesday.

It was the biggest fall since records were first kept in 1955.
GDP for all of fiscal 2008 also saw its biggest ever fall of 3.5 percent.
The Cabinet Office said weak overseas and domestic demand caused the economy to contract for the fourth straight quarter, following an annualized 14.4 percent contraction in the October-December period.
Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the worst may be over.

Despite the record contraction, Yosano said the January-March quarter is already "past" and that it is time to look to the future.

"It's important (we see) what has happened in April and May," he said, referring to signs of improvement in some recent economic figures.
Some economists agree with Yosano and expect GDP in the April-June quarter to show positive growth.

"Although the figures are the lowest ever, they are within our expectations," said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities Co.

Kiuchi expects the Japanese economy to grow at an annualized pace of 3 percent to 5 percent in the April-June quarter as China and the United States rebound and exports to their economies recover.

Japan's economic stimulus measures will also contribute to growth, he predicted.

Kiuchi also noted the economy has started entering a period of deflation. The domestic demand deflator, a key measure of domestic price trends, fell 0.9 percent, compared with a rise of 0.3 percent in October-December last year.

"In the January-March period, the gap has further widened," said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Certainly, the fall could not be stopped."

While expecting exports to recover as China's economy revives, Kumano said it remains extremely unclear how strong and how long the economic recovery will be amid the outbreak of H1N1 swine flu.

Export of goods and services plummeted 26 percent from the previous quarter, the largest fall on record. Private consumption declined 1.1 percent and private investment fell 10.4 percent.

Domestic demand contributed to lowering GDP by minus 2.6 percent and net exports of goods and services by minus 1.4 percent.

GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, contracted 4.0 percent in January-March quarter from the previous quarter.

In nominal terms, before adjusting for inflation, the economy contracted 2.9 percent, or an annualized contraction of 10.9 percent.

The employment environment is becoming increasingly harsh, which may lead to a prolonged slump in consumer spending that accounts for about 55 percent of GDP.

Last month, the government predicted the economy would face a contraction of 3.3 percent in real terms in fiscal 2009. The economy will still need to expand about 0.7 percent each quarter to meet this forecast.

Information from Kyodo added